Summer Issue 2021 - 24

developments
is $70 billion in 2021, rising to $85
billion in 2022 and $90 billion in
2023, both of which exceed the
20-year average of $82 billion.
l Commercial real estate price
growth as measured by the RCA
Commercial Property Price Index
(CPPI) is expected to remain below
2020 levels for all three years,
dropping to 4.2 percent in 2021
and increasing to 5 percent in 2022
and 5 percent in 2023.
l Rent growth over the next three
years is expected to be uneven
depending on the sector. Industrial
rent growth continues to lead all sectors
with an average of 3.6 percent
between 2021 and 2023, followed
by multifamily at 2.6 percent, retail
at -0.1 percent, and office at -0.3
percent. Hotel revenue per available
room (RevPAR) is expected
to strongly rebound for an average
increase of nearly 20 percent over the
three-year period the survey covered.
l National vacancy and availability
rates are expected to again continue
performing below the 20-year average
for industrial and apartments,
but above average for office. Over
the next three years, availability for
industrial will average 7.3 percent,
below the 20-year average of 10.4
percent, and apartments will average
4.4 percent, below the average of
5.3 percent. Office vacancy rates are
expected to rise by a three-year average
of 16.2 percent, above the average
of 14.3 percent, and retail will be
slightly below average at 9.8 percent,
below the average of 9.9 percent.
The forecast for real estate
returns as measured by the NCREIF
Property Index for 2021 are higher
than for 2020 and will continue to
rise throughout the next two years
for office and retail. Total returns
are forecast at 4.5 percent, 5.9
percent, and 6.5 percent for 2021,
2022, and 2023, respectively.
Industrial again leads all property
types, with an average return of 9.8
percent, followed by apartment at
6.2 percent, office at 3.6 percent,
and retail at 2.5 percent.
24
Housing starts exceeded the
20-year average in 2020 for the
first time since the financial crisis.
Housing starts are expected to continue
to increase to 1.1 million in
2021 and to 1.2 million in 2022 and
to remain at that level in 2023.-J.A.
Toronto-Based Team
Wins 2021 ULI Hines
Student Competition
A redevelopment plan for a Kansas
City, Missouri, site presented by
Fusion, a team comprising students
from Ryerson University, York
University, and the University of
Toronto, claimed top honors in the
2021 ULI/Gerald D. Hines Student
Urban Design Competition. Members
of the winning team, which
was awarded a prize of $50,000,
were Frances Grout-Brown and
Leorah Klein of Ryerson University;
Yanlin Zhou of York University; and
Ruotian Tan and Chenyi Xu of the
University of Toronto.
" The 2021 ULI Hines Competition
finalists raised the level of creative
thinking and technical execution
delivered in the competition, " said
Diana Reid, chair of the ULI Hines
jury. " This was a challenging brief; it
required a bold vision for the future,
balancing economic impact, environmental
sustainability, enhanced
mobility, and social equity. Each of
the finalists delivered catalytic development
proposals.
" Fusion stood out as it pushed
a new paradigm for an urban
neighborhood based on the strong
regional legacy of agriculture. Their
financing plan and design enabled
economic resilience through smallscale
food growth and distribution,
local culinary incubation,
and research-driven employment
opportunities. Fusion's food-based
approach and focus on inclusive
and sustainable growth created
a complete vision of a new urban
neighborhood in East Village,
including ambitious housing affordURBAN
LAND SUMMER 2021
ability targets, smart community
partnerships, strong pedestrian and
multimodal transportation, and connectivity
to and through the site. "
" On behalf of ULI, I want to congratulate
the winners and finalists
of the 2021 ULI Hines Competition, "
said ULI Global CEO W. Edward
Walter. " I commend them for the
creativity and hard work that got
them to the final stage of this competition.
I also want to thank our
jury members, who have devoted
countless hours of their own time
to reviewing and debating the
proposals put before them. We
welcome all of the competitors to
ULI's network of problem solvers
and thought leaders, and I can't
wait to see their impact on the built
environment of the future. "
The remaining three finalist
teams, with representatives from
Georgia Tech, the University of
Houston, Pennsylvania State,
Columbia University, and the University
of California, Berkeley, each
receive $10,000.
The ULI Hines Student Competition
was created with a generous
endowment from longtime ULI
leader Gerald Hines, founder of the
Hines real estate organization.-J.A.
Winners of 2021
ULI Hines Student
Competition-Europe
ULI and Hines, the international real
estate firm, announced in April that
a team from the London Business
School won the second ULI Hines
Student Competition-Europe.
Four students from the London
Business School were victorious in
the final round of the pan-European
virtual real estate competition,
which challenged teams to present
their vision of a future workplace,
based on the redevelopment of an
office site in Amsterdam. The winning
students each receive a oneyear
ULI membership, a fast track
the Hines internship program, a
guided tour of a live Hines project,
and participation in project meetings
in Hines's European offices.
Emanuel Dos Santos Rebelo,
Dermot Mahony, Beatriz Vala, and
Yoko Yamada from the London Business
School beat seven other teams
from a diverse array of academic
institutions, including Copenhagen
Business School, Denmark; EBS
Universität für Wirtschaft und Recht,
Germany; IESE Business School,
Spain; INSEAD, France; Politecnico
di Milano, Italy; Universidad Politécnica
de Madrid, Spain; and University
of Cambridge, United Kingdom,
to win the prize.
Team captain Yoko Yamada from
the London Business School said,
" I'm over the moon, but the whole
team is key to this win. It's an absolute
honor to come out on top of the
competition. We have been working
towards this behind the scenes for
the last month in terms of preparation
with group study sessions, so
we're all equally very pleased that
our efforts have paid off. "
The final consisted of a full day
of virtual sessions, where the finalist
teams were tasked with the topical
challenge of the future of the
workplace assessing their understanding
of how offices will evolve
and remain connected to the communities
in which they operate well
into the future. The teams were
challenged to develop their vision
for the office site, setting out the
mix of uses they felt most appropriate,
along with an environmental,
social, and governance (ESG) strategy
and their proposed financials
for the scheme. They worked in
multidisciplinary teams, with the
support of Hines mentors.
Innovative ideas for the future of
the office during the final included
the following: organic indoor and
outdoor gardens, canopies with
vegetation and wildlife, outdoor
office pods embedded in nature,
serviced lofts in the upper echelons
of the office space, solar chim
Summer Issue 2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Summer Issue 2021
