Summer Issue 2021 - 25

neys, a rooftop lighthouse, and an
amphitheater to connect with the
local community.
The finalists were asked to present
their plans to a jury consisting
of senior real estate industry professionals,
including the following:
Mary Louise Gray, regional director,
EMEA, Microsoft; Karim Habra,
executive vice president, head of
Europe and Asia Pacific, Ivanhoé
Cambridge; Lars Huber, CEOEurope,
Hines; Stuart Lipton, partner,
Lipton Rogers Developments;
Brian Moran, head of Ireland,
Hines; Ellen Nieuweboer, project
director, city of Amsterdam; Audun
Opdal, senior partner, head of
design, 3xn; and Lisette van Doorn,
CEO, ULI Europe.
Lars Huber, CEO of Hines Europe,
said, " We are very proud to partner
with ULI to offer this incredible
competition for the second year
running. It has again showcased
some remarkable emerging talent
across Europe. The winning team
deserves the plaudits as the competition
was exceptionally tough,
but all the finalists should be
incredibly proud of their performance
and efforts. We saw some
novel ideas, fantastic concepts, and
innovative thought processes about
how the future of work will look
and how the real estate sector will
need to adapt to multigenerational
needs. We remain committed to
this competition for the long term
as we look to continue to support
young professionals break into our
fantastic industry while broadening
out the talent pool to attract creative
and diverse talent. "
Lisette van Doorn, CEO of ULI
Europe, added, " ULI's mission is to
shape the future of the built environment
for transformative impact in
communities worldwide, and with
our global, multidisciplinary, and
multigenerational focus, this competition
is a perfect example of what
ULI stands for. Seeing the enthusiasm
and motivation from the competing
students has been fantastic
and, thanks to the generous support
of Hines, we are thrilled to be able
to provide them with a springboard
to start their career in the industry.
We've been very impressed with the
creativity and solutions provided,
that we urgently need to adapt to
in the post-COVID-19 reality, trying
to tackle some of the major challenges
that were accelerated by the
pandemic, such as decarbonization,
social inequality, and advanced
innovation. We hope everyone
involved today will join the industry
and continue their journey with
ULI when developing their careers,
by leveraging our content and our
global network. "
Asia Pacific Forecast
Sees Economic
Rebound
Key real estate markets in the Asia
Pacific region are likely to experience
a sustainable and resilient recovery
in the next three years, bouncing
back from recent weakness triggered
by the spread of COVID-19, according
to the inaugural ULI Real Estate
Economic Forecast for the region,
released in late May.
China overall is forecast to lead,
with 8.75 percent real growth in
gross domestic product (GDP)
in 2021, followed by Singapore
(6.1 percent), Hong Kong (4.7
percent), and Japan (3.0 percent).
While economies in the region
are expected to grow at a slightly
slower pace in 2022 and 2023,
signs of continuing recovery
remain as unemployment rates
are expected to continue trending
downward across the four key markets
surveyed-Hong Kong, Shanghai,
Singapore, and Tokyo.
Real estate in the four cities
is likely to rebound as well, with
bright spots in the office and
logistics markets. Although office
vacancy rates are expected to
expand at a slightly slower rate for
the next three years, according to
an office MSCI index, office sectors
in Singapore and Tokyo are estimated
to return 3.59 percent and
3.1 percent, respectively, before
accelerating to 8.63 percent and
4.3 percent in 2023. A rapid shift
toward e-commerce continues
to support demand for logistics
assets, with rental rates estimated
to rise 2.75 percent in Hong Kong in
2022, the highest among the four
markets surveyed. However, the
outlook for the retail sector remains
downbeat this year, with rental
rates projected to decline in Singapore,
Shanghai, and Hong Kong.
At the onset of the pandemic in
2020, substantial declines were
seen in the inflation rates of the
four markets studied, with Hong
Kong and Japan dipping into negative
territory. This trend is set to be
reversed in 2021. Overall, mediumterm
inflation rates are projected to
remain stable and subdued, rising
gradually from 2 percent in Hong
Kong, 1.55 percent in China overall,
1.4 percent in Singapore, and 0.0
percent in Japan. In 2021, rates are
expected to reach 2.05 percent in
Hong Kong, 2.5 percent in China,
2 percent in Singapore, and 0.55
percent in Japan.
" The latest ULI Real Estate
Economic Forecast paints a bright
outlook for the key economies and
real estate markets in Asia Pacific,
signaling the region's resilience
to the challenges posed by the
pandemic, " said David Faulkner,
president of ULI Asia Pacific. " Even
so, pockets of uncertainties remain
as recovery would depend on the
pace of the reopening of the global
economy, as well as the reemergence
of the virus, which may lead
to another round of lockdowns. "
The findings are based on a
survey of economists and analysts
at eight leading real estate and
investment organizations: Aberdeen
Standard Investments, AEW,
Cushman & Wakefield, Heitman,
JLL, Morgan Stanley, Nuveen Real
Estate, and Phoenix Property Investors.
It is also based on historic
data provided by JLL, MSCI, and
Oxford Economics.
Other projections include these:
l Hong Kong: Office rental rates
are projected to slide 8 percent this
year, before returning to growth in
2023. The availability of logistics
assets in the city remains low,
driving rental rates to expected
increases of 2.75 percent in 2022
and 2.25 percent in 2023. Similar to
those for other major cities in the
region, rental rates for retail assets
are estimated to decline by 10 percent
this year, the steepest among
the four markets surveyed, and will
likely bounce back in 2023.
l Shanghai: In contrast with
declines seen in Hong Kong and
Singapore, the office vacancy
and rental rates in Shanghai are
expected to rise slightly for the
next three years. The city's logistics
market is forecast to remain resilient
throughout the year as well,
with rental rates recording a healthy
increase of 1.75 percent, 2.25 percent,
and 2.75 percent in 2021,
2022, and 2023, respectively.
l Singapore: Growth in the office
vacancy rate is expected to decline
slightly between 2021 and 2023,
with office rental rates recovering
from 2022 onward. Logistics
remains popular, with fewer assets
estimated to be available throughout
these years, driving rental rates
up from 2022 onward. Retail assets
continue to face challenges, with
rental rates expected to decline 7
percent this year before recording a
1.75 percent increase in 2022 and a
4.8 percent jump in 2023.
l Tokyo: The office vacancy rate is
expected to hit a high of 3.75 percent
in 2023, up from a low of 0.57
percent in 2019. Rental rates will
stay weak with a 5.9 percent decline
in 2021 and flat growth in 2022. The
rental rate for logistics assets will
likely remain steady this year and
next, before slowing in 2023. UL
SUMMER 2021
URBAN LAND
25
Summer Issue 2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Summer Issue 2021
