Winter Issue 2022 - 67

OUTLOOK2022
PROSPECTS FOR MAJOR COMMERCIAL PROPERTY TYPES
able housing developer interviewed for Emerging Trends,
" Throughout the pandemic, we saw the fact that people who
did not have stable housing really suffer disproportionately. "
For 2022, the report notes that the best housing investment
prospects are with single-family housing, with development
prospects the same for single-family housing and
multifamily housing. Broken down by residential property
types, survey respondents ranked master-planned communities
as having both excellent development and investment
prospects, a slight improvement from 2021. Single-family
moderate-income/workforce housing development prospects
remained virtually unchanged year over year while agerestricted
housing saw the biggest jump in both investment
and development, from fair to good.
Office. The office sector has so far weathered the pandemic,
insulated by long-term leases, causing minimal
impact to rents and property values. Work-from-home could
create existential change for office use the way that online
shopping did for brick-and-mortar retail.
If office bifurcates like retail, that could mean well-located
and well-amenitized properties could thrive while lesser-quality
and poorly located properties struggle with obsolescence.
Hotels. Hotels led the bottom half of the list of investment
prospects by property type. Demand uncertainty has
been a mark of the sector, from the pre-pandemic days when
hotels were forced to operate with reduced staffing at the
onset of the pandemic to comply with Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines. Staff have been
slow to return due to ongoing safety concerns and migrations
to secondary and tertiary markets, leaving 24/7 markets raising
rents to suppress demand while reducing service.
Retail. The retail sector reengineered and adapted virtually
overnight, bolstered by $6 trillion in government stimulus.
In the end, according to Emerging Trends, the sector
rose to the occasion, surviving the worst fears. Even so, the
number of store closings far outpaced store openings. Retail
vacancies soared to Great Recession levels, as rents trended
downward. UL
WINTER 2022
URBAN LAND
65

Winter Issue 2022

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