Cooperative Living February 2016 - 25

YourBusiness
Forecasting Energy Use to Ensure a
Reliable Power Supply
Think
When we hear the word 'forecast,' we typically think of the
weather. But energy providers such as your electric
cooperative are tasked with managing a different type of
forecast - one having to do with electricity use.
W
hat the industry refers to
as a " load forecast " is
exactly what it sounds
like - an estimate or prediction of
how much electricity will be needed
in the future. We all depend on
power to meet our daily needs, but
the amount we use varies from
season to season, day to day and
even hour by hour.
Bitterly cold days in our region of
the U.S. the past two winters have
pushed the demand for electricity to
heat homes and businesses to new
peaks. That's why your cooperative
and its power suppliers plan far in
advance to ensure there will be
enough power available to meet
future demand.
Acting as a neutral, independent
party, PJM Interconnection
coordinates the movement of
wholesale electricity in all or part of
12 Eastern U.S. states and the
District of Columbia, managing
62,500 miles of high-voltage
transmission lines to ensure reliable
electricity for more than 61 million
people.
Using a long-term process that
procures electric supply three years in
advance, PJM also operates a competitive
energy market into which electricity
providers pool their resources. Think of
the electricity output from a single power
station as being like a glass of water. PJM
figures out how many glasses of water
will likely be needed for the tank to reach
a given level needed to meet demand for
each hour of the day - the load forecast
www.co-opliving.com
of the electricity
output from a
single power station
as being like
a glass of
water.
customers to lower their electric
needs (to decrease the amount of
water needed to fill the tank in the
first place).
PJM's function has become more
challenging in recent years, as
older, coal-fired power plants are
taken offline in order to meet new
environmental regulations. At the
same time, renewable resources,
many of which provide an
intermittent, less-predictable source
of electricity, occupy an increasing
share of the capacity mix.
Against this backdrop, during
the extreme cold snap of Feb. 20,
2015, PJM Interconnection region
hit a new winter peak load of
- and also project what level might
be reached on the peak-demand day
of the year.
Much of the time, demand is at a
moderate level and the electricity that
could be produced by standby-generation
resources (peaking plants) won't be
needed. Some PJM participants also
provide financial incentives for electricity
consumers to reduce consumption
during times of peak demand, such as a
hot summer day or frigid winter night.
So, some companies generate electricity
(add water to the tank), while others pay
143,800 megawatts. While PJM members
were able to meet this unprecedented
demand, PJM has since implemented more
stringent policies for all categories of
power suppliers to ensure that sufficient
power-supply resources will be available
to cover future peak-demand events.
Planning ahead not only improves
reliability, but helps electricity
providers achieve the best economic
price for power, limiting the impact that
purchasing additional power to meet
demand could have on your monthly
electric bill. 
February 2016 | Cooperative Living | 23
MOODBOARD/THINKSTOCK
http://www.co-opliving.com
Cooperative Living February 2016

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Cooperative Living February 2016
