ILMA Compoundings - April 2021 - 20

was 15W-40, but in recent years, commercial vehicle OEMs
have started recommending 10W-30/40 for their new
vehicle models.
Unlike the commercial segment, demand for multigrades
accounted for a higher share than monogrades in the
consumer automotive segment. However, monogrades
still have significant shares in country markets such as
Indonesia, Cambodia, Myanmar and Lao PDR. The largest
viscosity-grade category included 10W-30 and 10W-40.
Demand for lower-viscosity grades, such as 5Ws and 0Ws,
has improved in this region; 0Ws are a niche category
and have noteworthy demand in Indonesia, Thailand and
Malaysia, the three largest passenger car motor oil (PCMO)
consumers in the region.
Process oil was the largest industrial oil category in the
major ASEAN countries in 2019. High demand for process
oil is essentially due to a large demand for rubber process
oils in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. Process oil is
followed by industrial engine oil, which is closely followed
by hydraulic fluids. A large part of industrial engine oil is
constituted by marine engine oil, which has high demand in
Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines. It is also the largest
engine oil type in Cambodia and Myanmar. The most
significant demand for metalworking fluids comes from
Thailand, where a considerable percentage of this demand is
coming from transportation equipment manufacturing.
The overall lubricant demand in the select countries
in ASEAN is expected to grow at a moderate compound
annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.0% from 2019 to 2029.
INDUSTRIAL LUBRICANTS DEMAND IN THE MAJOR
ASEAN COUNTRIES BY PRODUCT TYPE, 2019
TOTAL: 800-900 KT
All other
Gear oil
Process oil

Turbine and circulating oil

Metalworking fluid

Industrial engine oil
NOTE: Excludes Singapore and Brunei Darussalam

APRIL 2021

4,000

.0%

CAGR 2
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0

2019
Indonesia
The Philippines

2024
1 Thailand

2029

Vietnam

Myanmar

Malaysia

Cambodia/Lao PDR

NOTE: Excludes Singapore and Brunei Darussalam

The growth rate is expected to be higher for the period of
2024 to 2029, as the economies are expected to have recovered from COVID-19's negative impact by 2024; after that,
industrialization and urbanization will pick up momentum.
COVID-19, which caused prolonged lockdowns, had the
ability to push the lubricants market downward by 7% to
17% in 2020 in comparison to the demand in 2019.
Despite a major setback due to the pandemic, the
lubricants market in this region is very dynamic and
presents strong growth prospects over the forecast period.
Growth is expected to be driven by the consumer segment,
followed by the commercial and industrial segments.
Growing population and urbanization in the key countries
will fuel passenger vehicle parc growth. In many countries,
the popularity of two-wheelers will also contribute to the
stronger growth in the segment. Government regulations
and policies, COVID-19's impact in the short term,
consumer purchasing power, government spending on key
industries and international trade and commodity prices
are some of the factors that can critically impact industrial
and commercial automotive lubricants segments over the
forecast period.
Dutta is a project manager at Kline Energy.

Hydraulic fluid

LUBRICANTS DEMAND FORECAST IN THE MAJOR
COUNTRIES IN ASEAN BY COUNTRY, 2019 TO 2029

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ILMA Compoundings - April 2021

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