ILMA Compoundings December 2016 - 35

2016 UEIL CONGRESS, BERLIN

THE HEART OF ILMA MEMBER NEWS

Changing Trends in Personal Mobility
and Lubricant Demand
Driving habits and vehicles are changing, and future automotive lubricant demand will be significantly affected. The findings of a study
on the future of personal transportation were shared during a keynote session at the 2016 UEIL Congress in Berlin, Germany. Several
members of ILMA participated in the Congress, held in late October.
The UEIL Congress featured a number of sessions focused on global trends related to lubricants. The keynote session, led by Blake
Eskew of IHS Energy, detailed automotive tends through 2040. The IHS study found that that there are currently 850 million passenger
cars on the road globally. China is driving growth in the light-duty automotive fleet, and with an average of 190 vehicles for every 1,000
workers, there is still room for significant growth in that country. By contrast, Europe averages 790 vehicles for every 1,000 workers,
with the United States at 1,180 vehicles for every 1,000 workers. Eskew noted that growth in China has declined significantly since 2010,
with annual growth averaging 7.5 percent, as compared to 23 percent annually from 2000 to 2010.
He cited several factors that would shape future mobility, including urban congestion, pollution, increased intermodal travel, the new
sharing economy and, of course, new fuel economy regulations and initiatives to cap carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.
Eskew noted that driving participation is falling around the globe, particularly in the U.S., where the number of 18- to 20-year-olds
with a driver's license has declined from 80 to 60 percent. He attributed this decline to e-commerce, increased social networking
interactions and urbanization. In other countries, working-age populations are plateauing (with the exception of Africa, the Middle
East and some Asia Pacific countries). In addition, there is a worldwide trend toward urbanization, which is also creating a number of
congestion issues around cities.

UEIL Installs New President

The IHS study also predicted that by 2040,
half of the world's vehicles will be powered
by traditional gasoline and diesel internal
combustion engines, with significant
penetration of hybrids and electric vehicles.
Eskew noted that the new vehicles will
dramatically reduce lubricant consumption.
As an example, the Ford F-150, the topselling vehicle in the U.S., requires 125 liters
of transmission fluid and motor oil over
10 years. A BMW 3-series requires 55 liters
of these lubricants. By contrast, the Tesla
electric vehicle requires 4 liters of lubricants
for its initial fill only.
The study predicted that initial fill and
original equipment manufacturer (OEM)
supply will grow in importance. With
personal transportation accounting for 25
percent of lubricant demand, Eskew suggested
that lubricant producers and marketers should
prepare for disruption.

At its 2016 Congress, UEIL bid farewell to Fabio Dalla Giovanna, who served as UEIL
president for the last four years. The new president, Valentina Serra-Holm, began her
two-year term at the conclusion of the October meeting. ILMA representatives to the
UEIL Congress with UEIL executives (from left): Frank Hamilton, Ron Powell, Beth Ann
Jones, Valentina Serra-Holm, (UEIL 2017-19 President) Holly Alfano, Gregoire Poisson (UEIL
secretary general) and Lon Fanning.

Compoundings December 2016 * 35 * Vol. 66 No. 12

ILMA Compoundings December 2016

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of ILMA Compoundings December 2016