Fuel Economy Will Drive Technology Engine lubricant is a cost-effective tool to help improve fuel economy. Weighing the impact of various technologies on the magnitude of potential fuel consumption reduction versus cost effectiveness, it becomes clearer that many options are available. Low-friction lubricants act as an outlier; they provide a relatively small reduction in fuel consumption but are very cost-effective compared to other options. In addition to being cost effective, switching to low-friction lubricants can be accomplished with little effort and can be implemented across a fleet of vehicles quickly without having to introduce new hardware or wait for new technologies. There are various ways in which fuel economy requirements drive new technologies into the market. First, one must consider what conditions are used to measure fuel economy and whether those conditions are truly representative of the market. Changes in what I refer to as the "operating environment" have an impact on 18 AUGUST 2017 | COMPOUNDINGS | ILMA.ORG S. Korea 2020: 56.7 25 EU 2021: 56.9 US 2025: 56.2 Canada 2025: 56.2 23 India 2022: 20.8 50 21 China 2020: 47.7 Japan 2020: 45.9 45 19 40 Brazil 2017: 40.9 Mexico 2016: 35.1 17 KSA 2020: 40.0 35 15 30 13 *Note that Japan has already exceeded its 2020 statutory target as of 2013. 11 25 2000 2005 0.16 2010 2015 2020 2025 Low-Friction Lubricants 0.14 0.12 Note: The indirect impact that low-friction lubricants have is not depicted here. 0.10 0.08 0.06 Engine Friction Reduction Cylinder Deactivation Cam Phasing 0.04 0.02 0 Gasoline Direct Injection 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 Fuel Consumption Reduction (%) 5.5 6.0 Kilometers per liter (gasoline equivalent) historical performance enacted targets proposed targets or targets under study 55 % FC Reduction / USD "Low-friction lubricants ... provide a relatively small reduction in fuel consumption but are very cost effective compared to other options." 60 Miles per gallon (gasoline equivalent), normalized to CAFE Fuel economy will continue to drive technology developments. To meet the target of 56.2 miles per gallon by 2025, OEMs need to improve CAFE by 4 percent per year from now through 2025. The target gets progressively more difficult as the "low-hanging fruit" is captured and more sophisticated and expensive technologies get adopted. Engine oil will play an important role in this, both by directly affecting fuel economy and by helping enable new engine technologies.http://www.ILMA.ORG