August 09 ElectroIndustry - 23

Economic Spotlight › Unemployment Expected to Persist through Next Year The unemployment rate increased to 9.5 percent in June. Not since emerging from the second of the back-to-back recessions during Ronald Reagan’s first term has the nation witnessed the unemployment rate exceed 9.0 percent. The number of unemployed persons has doubled since the start of the recession in December 2007, reaching 14.7 million in June. Manufacturing employment has shed 1.9 million persons during the same time period, while the electrical equipment manufacturing sector saw payrolls decline 12.3 percent on a yearover-year basis. Many economists are expecting the economy to begin the long process of recovering during the second half of this year. As with recent business cycles, however, unemployment rates are expected to remain stubbornly high long after the recovery has begun. ei Stacey Harrison | sta_harrison@nema.org Apr 2008 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production, manufacturing (Index, 2002 = 100) Percent change, year over year Industrial production, electrical equipment, (Index, 2002 = 100) Percent change, year over year Capacity utilization, manufacturing (percent) Purchasing Managers’ Index (value > 50 indicates expanding economy) CONSTRUCTION Housing starts, single family (millions of units, SAAR) Percent change, year over year Housing starts, multi family (millions of units, SAAR) Percent change, year over year Nonresidential construction, Lodging (billions of dollars, SAAR) Percent change, year over year Nonresidential construction, Oﬃce (billions of dollars, SAAR) Percent change, year over year Nonresidential construction, Commercial (billions of dollars, SAAR) Percent change, year over year Nonresidential construction, Healthcare (billions of dollars, SAAR) Percent change, year over year Nonresidential construction, Communication (billions of dollars, SAAR) Percent change, year over year Nonresidential construction, Electric Power (billions of dollars, SAAR) Percent change, year over year Nonresidential construction, Manufacturing (billions of dollars, SAAR) Percent change, year over year EMPLOYMENT Employment, electrical equipment, NAICS 335 (thousands) Percent change, year over year Unemployment (percent, SA) PRICES AND INTEREST RATES Consumer price index (percent change, prior period) Percent change, year over year Producer price index, ﬁnished goods (percent change, prior period) Percent change, year over year Interest rate, 3-month Treasury (constant maturity, annual yield) Interest rate, 10-year Treasury (constant maturity, annual yield) Spread (10-year yield minus 3-month yield) MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND INVENTORIES Value of Shipments: Electric Lighting Equipment (billions of dollars, SA) Percent change, year over year Value of Shipments: Electrical Equipment (billions of dollars, SA) Percent change, year over year Value of Inventories: Electric Lighting Equipment (billions of dollars, SA) Percent change, year over year Value of Inventories: Electrical Equipment (billions of dollars, SA) Percent change, year over year Inventory to Shipment Ratio: Electric Lighting Equipment (SA) Percent change, year over year Inventory to Shipment Ratio: Electrical Equipment (SA) Percent change, year over year 111.7 119.1 77.0 48.6 0.676 0.325 36.126 57.340 87.506 38.108 27.153 64.723 55.275 May 2008 111.5 120.4 76.7 49.3 0.679 0.292 37.399 57.001 85.217 38.682 29.603 69.977 57.139 Jun 2008 111.0 122.7 76.3 49.5 0.655 0.423 37.747 57.511 83.965 39.535 25.827 67.643 58.414 Apr 2009 95.4 -14.6% 105.9 -11.1% 65.6 40.1 0.388 -42.6% 0.091 -72.0% 31.769 -12.1% 46.583 -18.8% 63.278 -27.7% 38.752 1.7% 21.167 -22.0% 75.555 16.7% 85.226 54.2% 382.0 -10.9% 8.9 0.0 -0.6 0.3 -3.5 0.16 2.93 2.77 0.950 -7.5% 2.665 -23.9% 1.557 -12.9% 4.365 -16.7% 1.639 -5.8% 1.638 9.4% August 09 May 2009 94.3 -15.4% 104.6 -13.1% 64.9 42.8 0.411 -39.5% 0.151 -48.3% 30.943 -17.3% 46.644 -18.2% 59.675 -30.0% 38.450 -0.6% 21.215 -28.3% 78.406 12.0% 88.899 55.6% 378.5 -11.7% 9.4 0.1 -1.0 0.2 -4.7 0.18 3.29 3.11 0.944 -7.8% 2.577 -26.5% 1.533 -14.3% 4.265 -18.8% 1.624 -7.0% 1.655 10.4% Jun 2009 93.8 -15.5% 105.9 -13.7% 64.6 44.8 0.470 -28.2% 0.112 -73.5% 375.6 -12.3% 9.5 0.7 -1.2 1.8 -4.3 0.18 3.72 3.54 428.5 5.0 0.2 0.2 1.31 3.68 2.37 1.027 3.501 1.787 5.240 1.740 1.497 428.5 5.5 0.5 1.5 1.76 3.88 2.12 1.024 3.504 1.788 5.251 1.746 1.499 428.3 5.6 0.9 1.3 1.89 4.10 2.21 1.015 3.589 1.790 5.262 1.764 1.466 SA – Seasonally Adjusted SAAR – Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate • NEMA electroindustry 23
August 09 ElectroIndustry

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